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I am sure that the military leadership of Ukraine is preparing, but in general, in assessing the likelihood of an offensive by the Belarusians, we repeat the mistakes of October 2021-February 2022. Then, let me remind you, the prevailing opinion was that the forces and means of the Russians would not be enough to solve the problem of occupying a significant part of the country. The learned and misguided clichés that Russia would not go on the offensive were repeated, given the likelihood of internal destabilization, large-scale sanctions, etc.
As it turned out, the logic of a totalitarian nuclear state was at odds with the assessments of our experts and, frankly, those in power. The war helped Putin finally destroy any opposition that had consolidated around his face the chauvinistic Russian society. And Putin simply neglected the decline in the standard of living of Russians as a result of sanctions. This has never been a determining factor for the Kremlin, because the standard of living of Russians was already too low. Remember the Russian proverb: “If you don’t live richly, you have nothing to start with.” Moreover, it turned out that for the economically depressed regions of Russia, the war created earning opportunities and a social lift, which was used by the declassed inhabitants of the social bottom.
In addition, practice has proven that Russia’s military capabilities were enough for, albeit temporary (as we would like to think), the occupation of an additional 18% of our territory, the destruction of tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives, destroyed cities and entire regions. And the war, let me remind you, is far from over.
Ukrainians keep repeating the same mistakes over and over again, extrapolating the realities of our democratic, freedom-loving and anarchist society to societies living under conditions of authoritarianism.
We repeat our mistakes now. The Belarusian army, according to various estimates, has a total of 15 to 20 thousand combat-ready professional servicemen. These are the MTR of Belarus and various units of special forces. Which is + – 30% of the total army. The reserves of Belarus are estimated in tolerances from 200 to 400 thousand.
When we analyze the ability of the Belarusian army, we again and again proceed from several false premises:
- Firstly, as if the Belarusian society is not morally ready for war. As if the Belarusians have no motivation to fight with Ukraine.
- Secondly: as if the Belarusian army is not combat-ready, poorly equipped, not prepared for war.
- Thirdly: as if Lukashenka’s regime will be destabilized and may collapse as a result of intervention in Ukraine.
I have answers to all these theses.
First: Belarusian society really has no motivation to fight. But it lives in conditions of authoritarianism. The death penalty has been institutionalized, the lack of freedoms, the penetration of the state and special services into all spheres of life. The apparatus of coercion has been branched out, multiplied by the information vacuum and years of Russian-Lukashist propaganda. In addition, the Belarusians in their mentality are a law-abiding European nation. Society lives with the installation that the state must be obeyed. Again, in contrast to Ukraine, where everyone is his own general, prosecutor, and president.
Second: the equipment and equipment of the Belarusian army is usually worse than that of the Russians. But, unlike Russian institutions, Belarusian institutions are not imbued with corruption. The total number of opportunities for enrichment and apparatus maneuver is much less than in Russia with its formed mafia clans. This leads to a higher loyalty of the power structures to the regime, which is the only source of resource redistribution in favor of the security forces.
My theory is that the combat capability of the Belarusian army may just be higher than the combat capability of the Russian army.
Since corruption always has a devastating effect and contributes to the degradation and degeneration of state institutions and the system as a whole. A division disciplined and sharpened to carry out orders is nothing like a funny army. This is serious power.
Third: Lukashenka’s balls are clamped in a vice by no means by society, but by Putin. A credible and theoretical destabilization once upon a time is a threat not as immediate as a helping of “newcomer” in morning coffee. Putin knows that Lukashenka knows that, if necessary, the Kremlin will very easily ensure the transition of power from the old, already deceased dictator, to a new, no less mustachioed one. Belarus is a proxy state whose life, economy and politics are controlled by the Kremlin. The Kremlin will also help Lukashenka in case of mass rallies. The National Guard will suppress any resistance of the Belarusians, if it is not total and armed. And if it does, the Russian army will simply take control of the country, after which the annexation will take place.
Of course, Lukashenka evades Putin’s insistent requests. Because he understands that the intervention in Ukraine is the last card with which he can bargain with the Kremlin. And that then the Kremlin itself can throw Luka into the retreat. He doesn’t want to take uncalculated risks. But the moment will come when he simply has no other choice.
We need to remember that war is not a computer game. And that even a strike of 20-30 thousand armed contingents in the west of our country will mean the death of our military and civilians. Grief, suffering and death of Ukrainians. Western weapons crossing the border will have to be used not against Russians in the east and south, but against Belarusians. Since without the defeat of the army of Belarus it will be impossible to secure the logistics chains on which the life of our state depends. The deep rear will be under attack, which means that the priority will be to preserve this rear, which will allow the Russians to seize the initiative at the front.
I repeat again. If I understand this, then our generals also understand this. I am sure that the necessary measures to prepare the defense against the Belarusians are being carried out. Rather, I am saying that the fifth moon of the bloody and terrible war that will begin tomorrow is exactly the time to stop engaging in imbecile-targeted hatred in public communications and start talking to Ukrainians like adults.
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